Within Shapiro–Keyser storms, there are three main sources of extreme surface wind gusts the warm and cold jets that accompany the warm conveyor belt (WCB) (Harrold 1973) and the cold conveyor belt (CCB) (Carlson 1980 Browning and Roberts 1994), and the sting jet, if present (Browning 2004 Baker 2009 Schultz and Browning 2017 Clark and Gray 2018). We conclude that the CPM adds value in the representation of extreme winds and surface wind gusts and can provide improved input for impact models compared to coarser resolution models.Įxtra-tropical windstorms are one of the costliest natural hazards affecting Europe and cyclones that follow the Shapiro–Keyser (SK) conceptual model (Shapiro and Keyser 1990) account for a large proportion of the most damaging windstorms (Hewson and Neu 2015). Furthermore, extreme wind speeds and their future changes are underestimated in the global climate model (GCM) compared to the CPM.
The frequency of extreme windstorms is projected to increase by 2100 and a large contribution comes from sting jet storms. Our analysis indicates that Shapiro–Keyser cyclones, and those that develop sting jets, are the most damaging windstorms in present and future climates. The representation of wind gusts is improved with respect to ERA-Interim reanalysis data compared to observations this is linked to better representation of cold conveyor belts and sting jets in the CPM. Here, we develop a low-cost methodology to automatically detect sting jets, using the characteristic warm seclusion of Shapiro–Keyser cyclones and the slantwise descent of high wind speeds, within pan-European 2.2 km convection-permitting climate model (CPM) simulations. A sting jet is a mesoscale core of very high wind speeds that occurs in Shapiro–Keyser type cyclones, and high-resolution models are required to adequately model sting jets. Extra-tropical windstorms are one of the costliest natural hazards affecting Europe, and windstorms that develop a sting jet are extremely damaging.
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